Sorghum/Millet Yield Forecast Southern Africa
May 11th, 2009 - In Angola (-6%) and Zambia (-5%) the sorghum growing season has been dry and local reductions to average yields are expected. Dry conditions have also prevailed in the southern parts of Mozambique (-8% to -15%) In Zimbabwe: normal to good yields expected in Mashonaland West. In the southern part sorghum yields are on the low side (-6%). Well above average sorghum yields are expected in Lesotho (+7%). Crop yield prospects are normal to good in Botswana (-1%) and South-Africa +2%).
| | Sorghum/Millet Difference Yield (%) | |||
| All Growing Areas | Main Growing Areas | |||
| | 09/5yrs | 09/08 | 09/5yrs | 09/08 |
| -6 | -3 | 3 | 8 | |
| -1 | 4 |
|
| |
| 7 | 15 | | | |
| -5 |
|
| ||
| -5 | -4 |
|
| |
| -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | |
| 2 | 5 |
|
| |
| -5 | -4 | -5 | -4 | |
| -4 | -5 |
|
| |
| -4 | 4 | -5 | 7 | |
Forecasted maize difference yield relative to 5 yr average. May 11th, 2009
Maize Yield Forecast Southern Africa
April 1st, 2009 - Table and figure below present forecasted difference yields for Maize at date. The yield expectations are unfavourable in Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique. Above average yield is foreseen in South Africa, Lesotho and Bostwana. For timeliest and most recent information subscribe to our yield forecast bulletin.
| | Difference Yield (%) | |||
| All Growing Areas | Main Growing Areas | |||
| | 09/5yrs | 09/08 | 09/5yrs | 09/08 |
| -4 | 3 | -4 | 3 | |
| 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | |
| 4 | 8 | | | |
| -11 | -7 | -12 | -8 | |
| -8 | -5 | -5 | -1 | |
| -9 | -12 | -8 | -9 | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
| -8 | -8 | -9 | -7 | |
| -9 | -6 | -6 | -1 | |
| -1 | 11 | -2 | 11 | |
Forecasted maize difference yield relative to 5 yr average. April 1st, 2009.
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Validation
Comparison of EARS-FAST maize yield forecast and FAOstat reported yield (2003-2007). RMSE is 265 kg/ha and pearson correlation R2 = 0.93