Drought in Northern Europe

The map shows the actual evapotranspiration in Europe during the months April, May and June. The scale runs from zero (black) to 4 mm/day (blue). Average evapotranspiration in England, Netherlands, Belgium, Northern France, Germany, Poland is some 1 mm/day.  Optimum is 4-5 mm/day. As a result crop yields may fall dramatically. Subscribe to our FAST Potato Yield Forecast for Europe 2010

Yield Forecasts in 2010

During the growing season of 2010 we will again issue our FAST potato and cereal yield forecasts.  With respect to potato we have investigated forecasting skil for the EU-4 as a function of the time of the forecast. The graph below shows the difference between our forecasted and the Eurostat reported potato yield as a function of the forecast moment. Best forecasts are obtained on 1, 11 and 21 August. For this reason we will offer only these 3 potato yield forecasts. Please subscribe to the FAST service.

Assessment Potato Yield forecast 2008

March 2009 - EARS has improved its method to predict potato yields and productions in Europe. Potato yield forecasts are now based on more detailed ground data.  The method is described in the potato evaluation document.  A comparison between FAST forecasts and the national Eurostat potato yields and productions was made for 5 years and the the evaluation results are good. In 2008 the absolute difference with Eurostat yields was 1% at the European level. Yield forecasts are issued operationally in 2009. You are invited to subscribe to this service.

Comparison of EARS-FAST potato yield forecasts and Eurostat reported yields at NUTS-2 level for the years 2002-2007. RMSE is 3 tonnes/ha and pearson correlation R² = 0.96.

2008 Potato difference yield forecast relative to the 5 yr average

Wheat Yield Forecast for Europe 2008

27 August 2008 - In general average to above average Wheat yields are expected in Europe, though in many places yields are less than the previous year. Particularly in southern France, the Iberian peninsula and Italy, the growing conditions have been very favorable. Very good wheat yields are expected in Spain (+28%), Portugal (+28%), Italy (+19%), France (+19%), Switzerland (+25%), Slovenia (+23%) and Croatia (+12%). Relatively good yields are also expected in Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Balkan: Albania(+10%),Macedonia (+5.2%), Bosnia (+6%), Byelarus (+3%), Bulgaria(1%), Germany(+5%) and Poland (+3%). Also the United Kingdom (+12%) and Ireland (13%) the growing season was very favorable. Drier conditions are seen in Sweden, the Ukraine and Denmark where the yield is expected to be respectively -10%, -7% and -5% below the 5 years average.  

The expected relatively good yields in provinces Maramures, Suceava, Neamt and Iasi of Romania will be lower due to the recent floodings that have destroyed parts of the crops that were not harvested yet. Also in Ukraine, yields will be lower than expected in Ivano-Frankivska due to the recent floodings.

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Forecast of Wheat difference yield compared to the 5 yr average (in %)

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Maize Yield Forecast for Europe 2008

27 August 2008 - In general average to above average maize yields are expected in Europe, though in many places yields are less than previous year. Particularly in southern Europe the growing conditions have been very favorable. Very good maize yields are expected in Spain (+25%), Portugal (+25%), Italy (+20%), France (+22%), Albania (+12%), Austria(+11%), Slovenia (+27%) and Turkey (+10%). Relatively good yields are also expected in Central Europe and the Balkan: Macedonia (+11%), Bosnia (+4%), Luxemburg andGermany(+5%). In the Netherlands, maize yield has recuperated from drought and is now at a normal level (+1.6%) but still well below the level of 2007 (-14%). Elsewhere below average yields are expected in Moldova (-5%) and Belarus    (-3%).  

The expected relatively good yields in provinces Maramures, Suceava, Neamt and Iasi of Romania will be lower due to the recent floodings that have destroyed parts of the crops that were not harvested yet. Also in Ukraine, yields will be lower than expected in Ivano-Frankivska due to the recent floodings.

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Forecast of Maize difference yield compared to the 5 yr average (in %)

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